While many market participants were waiting for the “inevitable” rise in short-term interest rates expected when the Fed tightened its monetary policy, some investors may have missed the increase in short-term rates already underway as a result of market forces.
Looking at the zero- to two-year segment of the yield curve—the segment that many believe will be most affected whenever the Fed “normalizes interest rates”—it may be surprising to see how much rates have increased since 2013.
In fact, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2015, rising from 0.45% in January to almost 0.90% in late November.1 The yield on the one-year U.S. Treasury note more than tripled, from 0.15% to more than 0.50% over the same period. The six-month U.S. Treasury bill’s yield rose from a low of 0.03% in May to over 0.30% in late November. Yet, despite the higher rates, we have not experienced the conjectured financial storm in the fixed income market.
The question of how far the Fed will go in raising its overnight target rate is still open. Similarly, we can ask ourselves a more complex question: Will the market lead the Fed, or is the Fed leading the market through setting expectations?
1. As of November 18, 2015. Source: Barclays Bank PLC.
Adapted from “The Rise of Short-Term Rates,” Issue Brief, November 2015. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates and may be subject to various other risks, including changes in credit quality, liquidity, prepayments, and other factors. Sector-specific investments can increase these risks.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This information is intended for educational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services.
